Extra-Tropical Low

An extra-tropical low is just a fancy name for any cyclone which forms north or south of the Tropics. I've heard them described as "cold hurricanes", which is somewhat true, except that they are typically much larger in area than hurricanes tend to be. This one in particular that is slowly marching our way is currently 938mb, certainly as low as the eyes of many hurricanes or typhoons. Out at sea, this thing is already spawning 50' significant wave heights, which means that statistically some of the waves are 100'. That's a lot of water.

As you can see, the cold front has already occluded the warm front, and the occluded front is wrapping around the low. All other things being equal, this would bring a LOT of rain to the Salish Sea basin.

However, there's more to the story. The low will follow the Rossby waves at the 500mb level. Here's the 500mb map:

Even though the jet stream is way down around Cape Mendocino, the 500mb contours appear to be steering the low even more northward into the Gulf of Alaska. So, we won't expect to see even the backwash of this until Friday (the rains tonight and tomorrow are from another cold front), and depending on how things shape up we may get no more than a typical late-autumn occluded front out of it at this latitude.

Will post more when I know more.

Have a happy and safe Halloween!!

Fox News Science does it again.

Wow. Okay, so, the rocket scientists over at Fox News just posted an article about, um, rocket science.

The headline is "Is NASA Covering Up the 100-Year Starship?"

The short answer is, no, they're not. This is possibly the worst-informed piece of science "journalism" I've ever seen, even coming from Fox. There are so many problems with this article I don't even know where to begin. Basically Fox has managed to conflate the Orion starship project and the Mars missions into one single (cough) one million dollar program.

So, the quick debunks, and then I'm going to use this as a jumping off point later to discuss some of the very cool things NASA is in fact planning as far as solar planetary exploration and colonization, and also deep-space exploration of the nearest stars.

1) Yes, NASA has had plans for a starship that would get humans to the nearest stars in about the span of a human lifetime. All of the technology to do so existed in 1958. It would have cost about the same amount as the Apollo 11 mission, and could have been completed and ready for launch as early as 1960. Had we launched to Alpha Centauri in 1960, we would be more than halfway there by now. The problem with the Orion starship was that it utilized atomic bomb blasts for propulsion, which is fine for a launch from orbit but at the time we had no way of doing that, so it would have needed to be a ground launch, which would have been a Very Bad Idea. Now we have the ability to construct a ship outside of the earth's atmosphere, and this is less of an issue. The current administration has given the green-light to dusting off and continuing this research, which is excellent. But it's hardly a secret, and certainly not a "cover up".

2) Yes, NASA has several different ideas about how best to accomplish a manned mission to Mars and other planets and moons within our solar system. Yes, some of these methods presume that a trip to Mars (or Europa or wherever) would be a one-way trip. So what? A hundred years ago many families and individuals set out westward in Conestoga wagons, fully aware that they were heading into a hostile wilderness with no hope of ever returning to their homelands. Yes, many of them died in the process. And many of them didn't. But in any case, while it might take 90 years to get to Alpha Centauri, it will in no way take 100 years to get to Mars. It might however take several years, depending on how we do it.

3) The missions to Mars and to Alpha Centauri are completely separate missions and completely separate projects. That said, the technology for the Orion starship could make one hell of a fine interplanetary craft as well. I will devote an entire post (or several) to the Orion mission, it's important and fascinating stuff.

3) Yes, it is easier to modify the human body to adapt to an alien world than it is to modify an entire planet to adapt to the human body. Of course Fox News would be surprised to learn this.

Sigh.
 
Here's the link to the Fox article.

Hold your nose

Halloween Weather Update (Seattle area)

Right now it looks like the extratropical low which is continuing to deepen south of the Aleutians will not be dumping QUITE as much rain on us as previously anticipated. Better news still is that it looks like we have a small window of dry weather for the trick-or-treaters tonight. If NOAA's modelling holds up, the rains shouldn't start until around 11pm tonight.

 
Will post more later about the extratropical low, both the one in the Gulf right now and ETLs generally. 

Great World-Wide Star Count UPDATED

Tonight begins the annual Great World Wide Star Count! It runs through November 12th, and is an excellent opportunity for amateur astronomers all over the world to collect data for determining the extent of regional light pollution. 
Star Count

All you need to do is go outside, look at a constellation (Cygnus if you're in the northern hemisphere, Sagittarius if you're in the southern hemisphere) and compare what you see with the diagrams provided. Then correlate this with the time and your location (by GPS or Google Earth) and submit your data to the good folk at Windows to the Universe, a subsidiary of NESTA (the National Earth Science Teachers Association). Here is the pdf of the Activity Guide:  
Star Count Activity Guide

UPDATE: If you use Google Earth and cut-and-paste your decimal latitude and longitude from it into the blocks on the Reporting page, you must delete the degree symbols on both or it won't be able to recognize the string of numbers as a latitude or longitude.

Incidentally, from the park by my house I could see fourth magnitude stars in Cygnus.

And a really lovely meteor, probably part of the Orionid shower, although it was awfully early in the evening. 

Howl-oween

The great thing about Seattle weather this time of year, if it's not one damned thing after another it's the same damned thing over and over.

Yes, we have another frontal system setting up to park itself over the Puget Sound basin on Sunday. No, it won't be quite as windy as last weekend. No, we won't see the flooding that's predicted for the western slope of the Cascades. But a bit sloppy for the Trick or Treaters.

This is the beginning of our first Pineapple Express of the season, spawned by the (still nasty, currently 940mb) remnants of Typhoon Chaba. More on this as it progresses.

Starpath School of Navigation courses at Windworks Sailing Center

Starpath School of Navigation
2011 General Navigation Series 
at Windworks Sailing Center

Starpath courses are tailored toward the recreational mariner as well as the professional. They are designed to teach the principles of navigation in a clear and concise manner. They are not intended as "license prep" courses, but rather as training for actual navigation. 

All Starpath classes are Tuesday and Thursday evenings from 1800-2100. Testing time is not built into
the schedule.

Radar Navigation Jan 4 – Jan 6
A practical guide to safe, versatile and efficient use of small-craft radar, radar principles and operation,
navigation by range and bearing, use of EBL and VRM in navigation and collision avoidance,
identifying radar targets and interpreting their motions, and how to apply the Rules of the Road. Also,
how to interpret land masses seen of the radar. This course is guaranteed to increase the safety and
efficiency of your radar watch many fold and greatly reduce the anxiety of those encounters with
converging radar targets that cannot be seen visually.

Electronic Navigation Jan 11 – Jan 13
Covers the best guidelines to safe and efficient use of GPS both independently and directly interfaced
with electronic charting software as a primary navigation system. Also covers use of electronic depth
sounding for bathymetric navigation.

Navigation Rules and Collision Avoidance Jan 18 – Jan 20
Covers all aspects of the Rules of the Road, starting with the basics and ending with all you need to
safely navigate in accordance with the Rules and avoid a collision with another vessel. It is for power
and sail vessels, large and small, professional and recreational. The Rules are the same for “...every
description of water craft used as a means of transportation on the water”. We will discuss collision
avoidance with vessels held visually, as well as by radar alone in conditions of reduced visibility.
Special emphasis will be placed on the obligations of sailing vessels and small power-driven vessels
interacting with each other, and interacting with larger vessels operating in the traffic lanes.
Prerequisite: No prerequisite, but Radar Navigation class is strongly recommended.

Marine Weather Feb 1 – Feb 17
A plain-language, practical course for inland and ocean sailing, guaranteed to make your sailing safer
and more efficient. Combine your own observations of wind, sea, clouds and barometer to better
interpret the official forecasts obtained from radio, satellite or facsimile as well as make your own
forecast if you lose the official sources. Develop practical rules of thumb which contribute to sound
decision making at the dock and underway.

Starpath School of Navigation
2011 Celestial Navigation Series 
at Windworks Sailing Center

Basic Celestial Navigation Feb 22 – Mar 3
Confidently use a marine sextant and chronometer to derive latitude by Local Apparent Noon and
Polaris, and precompute, shoot, compute and plot a three-star fix using Pub 249 Vol 1. This is the very
barest-bones minimum celestial navigation and ocean dead reckoning needed as an adjunct to GPS to
safely navigate an offshore passage.

Intermediate Celestial Navigation Mar 8 – Mar 17
Obtain and plot a celestial line of position of the sun, moon, planets and stars, using a marine sextant,
chronometer, Nautical Almanac and Pub 249 volumes 2 and 3. Plot a running fix of the sun, and
precompute sights of sun, moon, stars and planets using the 2102D Starfinder. Student will be familiar
with routine sight-averaging techniques necessary to utilize a plastic marine sextant.
Completion of this class along with Basic Celestial Navigation will prepare the student for most
Celestial Navigation exams, including US Sailing.
Prerequisite: Basic Celestial Navigation or equivalent.

Advanced Celestial Navigation Mar 22 – Mar 31
Obtain and plot celestial sights using a marine sextant and chronometer along with Pub 229, NAO
tables, the Kolbe Long-Term Almanac or a programmable scientific calculator. Navigate safely using
the smallest amount of publications, and without access to regularly updated almanac information (as
may be necessary for circumnavigating the globe).
Prerequisite: Basic and Intermediate Celestial Navigation or equivalent.

Emergency Celestial Navigation Apr 5 – Apr 14
Use the sun, moon, planets and stars to successfully navigate across an ocean without benefit of a
chronometer, sextant, almanac or sight-reduction tables. Many of the techniques covered will be based
on Polynesian celestial navigation principles.
Prerequisite: Basic and Intermediate Celestial Navigation or equivalent. Advanced Celestial Navigation
or the equivalent is not required but is strongly recommended.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Register for Starpath courses at:

Windworks Sailing Center
7001 Seaview Avenue NW, Suite 110 Seattle, WA 98117, USA
Toll-free 877-223-1993 Tel (206) 784-9386 Fax (206)784-2995
admin@sail1.com

Zenith Maritime Academy Class Calender

Below is a list of the USCG licensing courses I'm teaching this winter, posted here mainly so that I can then transfer it to the "Calender" link to the right. If you don't happen to be interested in sitting for a captain's license, this will likely not interest you.

Schedule for Zenith Maritime Academy licensing courses at Windworks Sailing Center

These courses are approved by the USCG for the licensing of US Merchant Mariners. They are linked from the Windworks website as Seattle Merchant Mariner Training.
For registration contact:

Windworks Sailing Center
7001 Seaview Ave NW
Suite 110
Seattle WA 98117
206-784-9386, fax 206-784-2995
www.windworkssailing.com
greg@sail1.com.

All Zenith classes are Monday through Friday 0900-1700, with a 1-hour lunch break. Testing time is
built into the schedule, with additional testing time for the Master 200 ton upgrade course available the
following week.

2010

32 hour (1 week: 4.5 days plus 0.5 days testing) Master 100 to Master 200 Upgrade Nov 8 – Nov 12 $375

4 hour Auxiliary Sail Nov 15 $75
4 hour Commercial Assistance Towing Nov 17 $75
4 hour Marine Radio Operator Permit (FCC) Nov 19 $75

56 hour (2 weeks: 8 day plus 2 day testing) Operator of Uninspected Passenger Vessel (“Six Pack”) Nov 29 – Dec 10 $800
24 hour (1 week: 3.5 days plus 1.5 days testing) Operator of Uninspected Passenger Vessel to Master 100 Upgrade Dec 13 – Dec 17 $375
32 hour (1 week: 4.5 days plus 0.5 days testing) Master 100 to Master 200 Upgrade Dec 20 – Dec 24 $375

4 hour Auxiliary Sail Dec 27 $75
4 hour  Commercial Assistance Towing Dec 29 $75
4 hour Marine Radio Operator Permit (FCC) Dec 31 $75

2011

56 hour (2 weeks: 8 day plus 2 day testing) Able Seaman Jan 3 – Jan 14 $800
56 hour (2 weeks: 8 day plus 2 day testing) Operator of Uninspected Passenger Vessel (“Six Pack”) Jan 17 – Jan 28 $800
24 hour (1 week: 3.5 days plus 1.5 days testing) Operator of Uninspected Passenger Vessel to Master 100 Upgrade Jan 31 – Feb 4 $375
32 hour (1 week: 4.5 days plus 0.5 days testing) Master 100 to Master 200 Upgrade Feb 7 – Feb 11 $375

4 hour Auxiliary Sail Feb 14 $75
4 hour  Commercial Assistance Towing Feb 16 $75
4 hour Marine Radio Operator Permit (FCC) Feb 18 $75

56 hour (2 weeks: 8 day plus 2 day testing) Operator of Uninspected Passenger Vessel (“Six Pack”) Feb 21 – Mar 4 $800
24 hour (1 week: 3.5 days plus 1.5 days testing) Operator of Uninspected Passenger Vessel to Master 100 Upgrade Mar 7 – Mar 11 $375
32 hour (1 week: 4.5 days plus 0.5 days testing) Master 100 to Master 200 Upgrade Mar 14 – Mar 18 $375

4 hour Auxiliary Sail Mar 21 $75
4 hour  Commercial Assistance Towing Mar 23 $75
4 hour Marine Radio Operator Permit (FCC) Mar 25 $75

56 hour (2 weeks: 8 day plus 2 day testing) Operator of Uninspected Passenger Vessel(“Six Pack”) Mar 28 – April 8 $800
24 hour (1 week: 3.5 days plus 1.5 days testing) Operator of Uninspected Passenger Vessel to Master 100 Upgrade April 11 – Apr 15 $375
32 hour (1 week: 4.5 days plus 0.5 days testing) Master 100 to Master 200 Upgrade Apr 18 – Apr 22 $375

4 hour Auxiliary Sail Apr 25 $75
4 hour  Commercial Assistance Towing Apr 27 $75
4 hour Marine Radio Operator Permit (FCC) Apr 29 $75