Search This Blog

Showing posts with label Weather. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Weather. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Flustercluck, part deux

The oil rig Kulluk is now aground on Sitkalidak Island, just off of Kodiak AK. Here's a map. Not sure where on the island it's aground.

==========================================

(CNN) -- A Royal Dutch Shell oil drilling barge remained grounded Tuesday on an island off southern Alaska amid a fierce winter storm that hindered recovery efforts, Coast Guard and Alaskan authorities reported.

The Shell-owned rig Kulluk was being towed to Seattle when it began encountering trouble Sunday, the Coast Guard said. One tug needed help after its engines failed; a replacement had to cut the rig loose Monday night during a storm that whipped up 24-foot waves in the Gulf of Alaska.

The 266-foot rig ran aground off Sitkalidak Island, about 200 miles south of Anchorage, on Monday night. A joint command was set up to head off any possible environmental damage, but crews had not been able to confirm the Kulluk's condition Tuesday morning, those authorities reported.

The Kulluk had 139,000 gallons (4,400 barrels) of diesel fuel and 12,000 gallons of combined lube oil and hydraulic fluid on board; no leaks had been detected early Tuesday.

Weather conditions were expected to improve through the rest of the week, with seas subsiding from 24 feet Tuesday to 11 feet by Friday, according to the National Weather Service.

Susan Childs, Shell's incident commander, said more than 250 people were working on the response. The rig grounded in an area of Ocean Bay, where water depth is 32 feet to 48 feet, according to a release from the response team.

The Kulluk is part of Shell's controversial effort to drill for oil in the remote Arctic, a project that caused widespread concern among environmentalists and was held up after BP's Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. It finished drilling operations in October, and its 18-person crew was evacuated Saturday.

The rig was being used to drill in the Beaufort Sea, off Alaska's North Slope. Shell says it's working at far less depth and lower pressures than the BP well that erupted off Louisiana, killing 11 men aboard and unleashing an undersea gusher that took three months to cap.

The U.S. Geological Survey estimates more than 90 billion barrels of oil and nearly 1,700 trillion cubic feet of natural gas may be recoverable by drilling. And the shrinking of the region's sea ice -- which hit record lows in 2012 -- has created new opportunities for energy exploration in the region.

Climate researchers say that a decrease in sea ice is a symptom of a warming climate, caused largely by the combustion of carbon-rich fossil fuels. The science is politically controversial but generally accepted as fact by most scientists.

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Flustercluck.

Outside of the maritime community, this hasn't been getting very much press. It is a mess. ===========================================================

ANCHORAGE DAILY NEWS 30 December 2012 2100ast

An unmanned mobile oil drilling rig owned by Royal Dutch Shell is adrift -- again -- south of Kodiak Island after it lost towlines Sunday afternoon from two vessels trying to hold it in place against what have been pummeling winds and high seas, according to incident management leaders.

A team of 250 people from the Coast Guard, the state of Alaska, Royal Dutch Shell, and one of its contractors was hunkered down Sunday, mainly in Midtown Anchorage's Frontier Building, trying to resolve the ongoing crisis with the Shell-owned drilling rig, the Kulluk.

Before the latest turn for the worse, representatives of the Coast Guard, Shell and the state Department of Environmental Conservation told reporters in a briefing early Sunday afternoon that the situation was critical, but under control.

Then tow lines from the Aiviq and a second support vessel, the Nanuq "separated," the joint command team said in a statement sent out at about 4:30 p.m. The setback happened sometime after 1 p.m., just as commanders were briefing news media on what appeared at that point to be a successful response after a series of failures. They didn't yet know the towlines had broken free, said Shell spokesman Curtis Smith, who is part of the unified incident command team.

A third vessel, the tug Alert, which is usually stationed in Prince William Sound as part of an emergency response system, has arrived on the scene. And a fourth Shell-contracted support ship, the Guardsman, is on location.

"The crew is evaluating all options for reconnecting with the Kulluk," the command team said. Tow lines are still attached to the Kulluk and conceivably could be reattached to the nearby ships, Smith said.

But with its crew evacuated for safety reasons, there's no one on board to tend the winches or maneuver equipment, Sean Churchfield, Shell's incident commander and the company's operations manager for Alaska, told reporters earlier on Sunday.

All decisions, including the evacuation, are being made by the group as a whole, said Capt. Paul Mehler, the Coast Guard's Anchorage-based commander.

The Gulf of Alaska storm has been fierce, with near-hurricane winds on Saturday night, Mehler said. Only a small lull is predicted for Monday morning, according to the National Weather Service. The forecast for Sunday night was 28-foot seas and winds in the range of 50 mph or more, about what it was on Saturday, said meteorologist Bob Clay. Seas and winds are expected to diminish Monday morning, then pick back up later in the day as another storm moves in, he said.

With no towlines securing it in place, the crew-less Kulluk is drifting about 20 miles south of Sitkinak Island, part of the Trinity Islands, south of Kodiak. Smith said early Sunday evening that he had not yet been briefed on how many hours it would take the Kulluk to reach shore if it continues adrift. A number of variables, including currents and wind speed, would affect when and where it hit, if it came to that, he noted. He said he would provide the information when he gets it.

The incident team also must find a safe harbor for the Aiviq, as well as the Kulluk, to undergo inspections and possible repairs before heading south to Everett, Wash., where the Kulluk had been headed for off-season maintenance before the troubles began.

The $290 million, 266-foot diameter Kulluk is a conical-shaped mobile rig that began drilling a single exploratory well in the Beaufort Sea this year. But it cannot propel itself, and a series of failures involving the rig began on Thursday during a stormy Gulf of Alaska crossing.

The 360-foot, $200 million Aiviq is a new ship commissioned by Shell for its Arctic work and built and owned by Louisiana-based maritime company Edison Chouest Offshore.

The Kulluk lost its towline from the Aiviq on Thursday. A second tow line was attached for a time, but then early Friday all four engines on the Aiviq failed. The Coast Guard sent the Alex Haley, a 282-foot cutter. It delivered a towline to the Aiviq, which was still attached to the Kulluk, but the sheer mass of the ship and the drilling rig, combined with 40 mph winds and building 35-foot seas, broke the connection and the line became tangled in the cutter's propeller and damaged it. The Alex Haley turned back to Kodiak for repair, but now is back at the Kulluk scene.

The towline mishaps and the engine failures are under investigation, Churchfield said.

On Saturday, the Kulluk's 18-person crew was safely evacuated to Kodiak in two Coast Guard helicopters. The Aiviq's engines were repaired with new fuel injectors, and the Nanuq, also under contract to Shell, put a towline on the Kulluk, for a time. The Aiviq then was running off two engines at a time, as a precaution, officials said Sunday.

Initial reports suggested that contaminated fuel might have caused the engines to malfunction, but that hasn't been confirmed through fuel analysis, Churchfield said.

"I don't really want to speculate as to the causes of the propulsion failure on the Aiviq," he said. "We are looking for the solutions and we will have a full investigation. At this stage I don't have any firm information to pass onto you."

However, the fuel now being used is from a different tank than that in use when the engines failed, said Shell's Smith.

The plan to use just a single ship to tow the Kulluk was reasonable, given the Aiviq's features, said the Coast Guard's Mehler.

"This type of operation is very normal. With the vessel the size of the Aiviq, with the capabilities of the Aiviq, with four engines, it was above and beyond what would be required to be able to tow, even in very extreme conditions," the commander said.

Shell did not have to get Coast Guard approval of its towing plan, because the maritime operation was so routine. But the oil company did consult with the agency as the vessels began their journey, Mehler said.

At the start of Shell's 2012 drilling season, the Aiviq towed the Kulluk from a shipyard in Washington state to Dutch Harbor and then to the Beaufort Sea, where two tugs took over to handle it, Churchfield said.

Two crew members on the Aiviq suffered minor injuries at some point, but both are back at work, Churchfield said.

No oil has been spilled during the incident, according to the state Department of Environmental Conservation.

Shell has had a difficult experience as it tries to drill offshore in the Alaska Arctic. It couldn't drill to oil-rich zones because its novel oil spill containment dome was damaged during testing. Its other drilling rig, a converted log carrier called the Noble Discoverer, recently was cited by the Coast Guard for problems with safety and pollution discharge equipment. Mehler ordered it held in Seward while the most serious issues were addressed. While the ship now is free to leave for Seattle, it remains docked in Seward because it is waiting for escort vessels now working on the Kulluk situation, Smith said.

In 1980, in a situation eerily similar to what is happening now, 18 crew members were evacuated off a jack-up drilling rig named the Dan Prince as rough seas in the North Pacific 650 miles south of Kodiak threatened to destroy the unit, according to news reports at the time. Heavy seas prevented crews from attaching a tow line. The rig then sank, according to an online listing of rig disasters.

Read more here: http://www.adn.com/2012/12/30/2738222/shell-drill-rig-adrift-again-in.html#storylink=cpy

Sunday, May 20, 2012

Seattle WA, Astronomer's Paradise

Today in Seattle we are in for an especially rare treat. While the rest of the country is only going to see a small part of the sun eclipsed by the moon, here we're going to see the entire sky eclipsed by stratus clouds!!!

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Starpath Courses Calendar 2011-2012

Starpath Courses

2011 General Navigation Series at Windworks Sailing Center


All Starpath classes are Tuesday and Thursday evenings from 1800-2100. Testing time is not built into the schedule.

Radar Navigation Oct 11 – Oct 13 $135
A practical guide to safe, versatile and efficient use of small-craft radar, radar principles and operation, navigation by range and bearing, use of EBL and VRM in navigation and collision avoidance, identifying radar targets and interpreting their motions, and how to apply the Rules of the Road. Also, how to interpret land masses seen of the radar. This course is guaranteed to increase the safety and
efficiency of your radar watch many fold and greatly reduce the anxiety of those encounters with converging radar targets that cannot be seen visually.


Electronic Navigation Oct 18 – Oct 20 $85

Covers the best guidelines to safe and efficient use of GPS both independently and interfaced with electronic charting software as a primary navigation system. Also covers use of electronic depth sounding for bathymetric navigation.

Navigation Rules and Collision Avoidance Oct 25 – Oct 27 $95
Covers all aspects of the Rules of the Road, starting with the basics and ending with all you need to safely navigate in accordance with the Rules and avoid a collision with another vessel. It is for power and sail vessels, large and small, professional and recreational. The Rules are the same for “...every description of water craft used as a means of transportation on the water”. We will discuss collision avoidance with vessels held visually, as well as by radar alone in conditions of reduced visibility. Special emphasis will be placed on the obligations of sailing vessels and small power-driven vessels interacting with each other, and interacting with larger vessels operating in the traffic lanes.

Prerequisite: No prerequisite, but Radar Navigation class is strongly recommended.

Marine Weather Nov 1 – Nov 17 $275
A plain-language, practical course for inland and ocean sailing, guaranteed to make your sailing safer and more efficient. Combine your own observations of wind, sea, clouds and barometer to better interpret the official forecasts obtained from radio, satellite or facsimile as well as make your own forecast if you lose the official sources. Develop practical rules of thumb which contribute to sound
decision making at the dock and underway.

============================================================
Starpath Courses
2012 Celestial Navigation Series at Windworks Sailing Center



Basic Celestial Navigation Jan 3 – Jan 12 $195

Confidently use a marine sextant and chronometer to derive latitude by Local Apparent Noon and Polaris, and precompute, shoot, compute and plot a three-star fix using Pub 249 Vol 1. This is the very barest-bones minimum celestial navigation and ocean dead reckoning needed as an adjunct to GPS to safely navigate an offshore passage.


Intermediate Celestial Navigation Jan 17 – Jan 26 $205

Obtain and plot a celestial line of position of the sun, moon, planets and stars, using a marine sextant, chronometer, Nautical Almanac and Pub 249 volumes 2 and 3. Plot a running fix of the sun, and precompute sights of sun, moon, stars and planets using the 2102D Starfinder. Student will be familiar with routine sight-averaging techniques necessary to utilize a plastic marine sextant. Student will also be introduced to Pub 229, the Kolbe Long-Term Almanac, NAO Tables and celestial
navigation using a scientific calculator. Completion of this class along with Basic Celestial Navigation will prepare the student for most Celestial Navigation exams, including US Sailing.

Prerequisite: Basic Celestial Navigation or equivalent.


Emergency Celestial Navigation Jan 31 – Feb 9 $225
Use the sun, moon, planets and stars to successfully navigate across an ocean without benefit of a chronometer, sextant, almanac or sight-reduction tables. Use the moon to determine Greenwich Mean Time (UTC). Many of the techniques covered will be based on Polynesian celestial navigation principles.

Prerequisite: Basic and Intermediate Celestial Navigation or equivalent.

==========================================================

Starpath Courses

2012 General Navigation Series at Windworks Sailing Center

All Starpath classes are Tuesday and Thursday evenings from 1800-2100. Testing time is not built into the schedule.

Radar Navigation Feb 21 – Feb 23 $135
A practical guide to safe, versatile and efficient use of small-craft radar, radar principles and operation, navigation by range and bearing, use of EBL and VRM in navigation and collision avoidance, identifying radar targets and interpreting their motions, and how to apply the Rules of the Road. Also, how to interpret land masses seen of the radar. This course is guaranteed to increase the safety and efficiency of your radar watch many fold and greatly reduce the anxiety of those encounters with converging radar targets that cannot be seen visually.

Electronic Navigation Feb 28 – Mar 1 $85
Covers the best guidelines to safe and efficient use of GPS both independently and directly interfaced with electronic charting software as a primary navigation system. Also covers use of electronic depth sounding for bathymetric navigation.

Marine Weather Mar 6 – Mar 22 $275
A plain-language, practical course for inland and ocean sailing, guaranteed to make your sailing safer and more efficient. Combine your own observations of wind, sea, clouds and barometer to better interpret the official forecasts obtained from radio, satellite or facsimile as well as make your own forecast if you lose the official sources. Develop practical rules of thumb which contribute to sound decision making at the dock and underway.

For further information and registration contact:

Windworks Sailing Center
7001 Seaview Avenue NW, Suite 110
Seattle, WA 98117, USA
Toll-free 877-223-1993 Tel (206) 784-9386
Fax (206)784-2995
admin@sail1.com

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Survivor's Guilt

Seattle forecast for today: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph.


Occasionally it's good to live in a place where nobody bothers to install air conditioning in buildings.

For the folks living in places affected by the heat wave, try to stay cool, and remember that on all of the really nice spring, summer and fall days that you have Seattle still looks like this.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Lightning and Sailboats

On the subject of lightning strikes and sailboats, here is a free e-book on the subject from the University of Florida. 4-20% of all sailboats there are struck by lightning each year. Here in western Washington we're lucky to see 4 - 20 lightning flashes each year, due to our propensity for frontal systems to be occluded by the time they reach our shores. In the tropics, it's a whole different situation.

http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/pdffiles/SG/SG07100.pdf

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Waterspouts on Alki!

Four small waterspouts were sighted south of Alki Point about 20 minutes ago, around 14:30 pdt.


Some minor tree damage as one of the waterspouts came onto land in the vicinity of Mee Kwa Mooks Park.

No more information at this time, system is moving north up Puget Sound.

Friday, March 4, 2011

Hurricain't

So, the extratropical Low earlier this week was in fact strong enough to qualify as a hurricane, or would have been had it originated in the Tropics. The Low at one point dipped below 964 millibars, which makes it a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Maximum recorded sustained winds recorded on land were 72 knots (about 83 mph) gusting to 90 kts (104 mph), on Solander Island BC. This would be the bottom end of a Category 2 of the Saffir-Simpson scale, but the actual highest winds were some distance offshore. Cliff Mass on his weather blog has a pretty good discussion of why the Solander Island data may have been a slightly high-ball outlier, but nonetheless Vancouver Island and Haida Gwaii were hit with what would have otherwise been the dangerous semicircle of the hurricane.


This is important to consider; typically Atlantic hurricanes hit the east coast with the "navigable" semicircle (so named by someone who had never been there in a boat or ship). Hurricanes which enter (or form in) the Gulf of Mexico of necessity hit the Gulf Coast with "both barrels", which is why Gulf of Mexico storms seem so much worse than Atlantic coast storms. Here on the west coast we always get hit with at least the dangerous semicircle, so our non-hurricanes in many cases will bring bigger winds to the coast. It is mostly the fact that the west coasts of Oregon, Washington, British Columbia and Alaska are sparsely populated that prevents them from receiving the same amount of damage (and headlines) as east cost hurricanes.

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Kudos to the National Weather Service

I'd like to give major kudos to the National Weather Service this morning.

First, their predictions for the "we can't call it a hurricane" extra-tropical Low were spot on, rather better than any of the other models I've seen.


But the bigger kudos I'd like to give is for making a tough but correct reporting call. I wouldn't have even noticed it if, for a few minutes this morning, they hadn't made a different choice, which also was arguably "correct".

The text report, which has since been revised but take my word for it, reported that the center of the Low would make landfall on Haida Gwaii at whatever time it was. If you're thinking "where in the hell is Haida Gwaii", you're not alone, even if you happen to be in the Pacific Northwest.

Haida Gwaii is the new name of what used to be the Queen Charlotte Islands, as of 3 June 2010.

Now, I'm happy to see that the islands have been renamed in such a way as to honor the (sadly few remaining) Haida people who live there. What happened to the Haida and other first peoples on the archipelago was pretty horrible, and the renaming is a small but not insignificant step toward making reparations. And, I'm happy that NOAA/NWS wanted to raise awareness of the name change.

But I'm most happy that NOAA/NWS recognized that a report of a significant weather hazard probably wasn't the best place to do that. If you happen to be reading this post, then you have access to the internet. So if you see a weather alert with a place name that you don't recognize, you can just Google it. The marine broadcasts, however, are being received by mariners who only have access to VHF or single-sideband voice broadcasts, or NAVTEX. So information anchored to a place-name which is unfamiliar is no information at all.

NOAA/NWS recognized this promptly and corrected it. Good on them. And now more of us know the proper name of Haida Gwaii.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

933 millibar Low in Gulf of Alaska

That's not a typo. And it was stacked up against a 1038 mb High just to the north of it.  A 105 mb differential in that short of distance generated winds equivalent to a category 4 hurricane, by any other name.
I have a class starting in five minutes so I don't have time to post more than this right now, but if you click on the Cliff Mass Weather Blog he has a very good post on it.

UPDATE: To clarify, this happened earlier this week, not right now. But it's an excellent demonstration of an extra-tropical low, and the write-up at Cliff Mass is superb.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Thunderstorms Make Antimatter

NASA-- Scientists using NASA's Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope have detected beams of antimatter produced above thunderstorms on Earth, a phenomenon never seen before.
Scientists think the antimatter particles were formed inside thunderstorms in a terrestrial gamma-ray flash (TGF) associated with lightning. It is estimated that about 500 TGFs occur daily worldwide, but most go undetected.
"These signals are the first direct evidence that thunderstorms make antimatter particle beams," said Michael Briggs, a member of Fermi's Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) team at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). He presented the findings Monday, during a news briefing at the American Astronomical Society meeting in Seattle. Full Article

Monday, January 3, 2011

How many dead blackbirds do you have to see before you believe, Scully?

Preliminary autopsies on 17 of the up to 5,000 blackbirds that fell on this town indicate they died of blunt trauma to their organs, the state's top veterinarian told NBC News on Monday.
Their stomachs were empty, which rules out poison, Dr. George Badley said, and they died in midair, not on impact with the ground.

That evidence, and the fact that the red-winged blackbirds fly in close flocks, suggests they suffered some massive midair collision, he added. That lends weight to theories that they were startled by something.
Earlier Monday, the estimated number of dead birds was raised to between 4,000 and 5,000, up sharply from the initial estimate of 1,000.

Keith Stephens, a spokesman for the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission, provided the new numbers.


Residents of the small town of Beebe awoke Saturday to find thousands of dead blackbirds littering a 1.5-square-mile area. The birds inexplicably dropped dead, landing on homes, cars and lawns.
Violent weather rumbled over much of the state Friday, including a tornado that killed three people in Cincinnati, Ark. Lightning could have killed the birds directly or startled them to the point that they became confused. Hail also has been known to knock birds from the sky.
The director of Cornell University's ornithology lab in Ithaca, N.Y., said the most likely suspect is violent weather. It's probable that thousands of birds were asleep, roosting in a single tree, when a "washing machine-type thunderstorm" sucked them up into the air, disoriented them, and even fatally soaked and chilled them.

Full Story

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Gale Warning East Entrance Strait of Juan de Fuca

Synopsis...A 984 MB LOW ABOUT 320 NM SW OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THROUGH FRI. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHER PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN STRONG SE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRI BEFORE WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND.

Late Afternoon: SE wind around 35 kt, with gusts as high as 46 kt. A chance of rain. Wind waves around 8 ft.

Tonight: SE wind 31 to 35 kt, with gusts as high as 46 kt. A chance of rain. Wind waves around 8 ft.

Here's a graph of the recent wind gust speeds at Smith Island.

Saturday, December 11, 2010

500mb and Surface Analysis for Flood Warnings

More from National Weather Service:


Flood Warning from NOAA/NWS

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1148 AM PST SAT DEC 11 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WASHINGTON...

  SOUTH FORK NOOKSACK RIVER AT SAXON BRIDGE AFFECTING WHATCOM COUNTY.
  NOOKSACK RIVER AT NORTH CEDARVILLE AFFECTING WHATCOM COUNTY.
  NOOKSACK RIVER AT FERNDALE AFFECTING WHATCOM COUNTY.
  SKAGIT RIVER NEAR CONCRETE AFFECTING SKAGIT COUNTY.
  SKAGIT RIVER NEAR MT. VERNON AFFECTING SKAGIT COUNTY.
  NORTH FORK STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR ARLINGTON AFFECTING SNOHOMISH
  COUNTY.
  SOUTH FORK STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR GRANITE FALLS AFFECTING
  SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
  STILLAGUAMISH RIVER AT ARLINGTON AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
  SKYKOMISH RIVER NEAR GOLD BAR AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
  SNOHOMISH RIVER NEAR MONROE AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
  SNOHOMISH RIVER AT SNOHOMISH AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
  TOLT RIVER NEAR CARNATION AFFECTING KING COUNTY.
  SNOQUALMIE RIVER NEAR THE FALLS AFFECTING KING COUNTY.
  SNOQUALMIE RIVER NEAR CARNATION AFFECTING KING COUNTY.

.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 2

HEAVY RAIN HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON.
THE HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTH AND CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES ARE
LIKELY TO RECEIVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
RAINFALL WILL DRIVE ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS...FROM THE NOOKSACK IN
WHATCOM COUNTY TO THE SNOQUALMIE IN KING COUNTY...ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

MOST RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING. SOME...INCLUDING THE
UPPER SKAGIT...THE LOWER SNOQUALMIE...AND THE SNOHOMISH...COULD
HAVE MAJOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC033-120447-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0033.101212T1418Z-101213T1528Z/
/TOLW1.2.ER.101212T1418Z.101213T0000Z.101213T0628Z.NO/
1148 AM PST SAT DEC 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
  THE TOLT RIVER NEAR CARNATION
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 11:15 AM SATURDAY THE FLOW WAS 907.0 CFS.
* FLOOD FLOW IS 4500 CFS.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD FLOW AROUND 6 AM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 6200 CFS AROUND 4 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 4500 CFS...THE TOLT RIVER WILL FLOOD TOLT RIVER RD AND
  MANY DRIVEWAYS. SOME HOMES IN THE SAN SOUCI AREA COULD BE
  INACCESSIBLE DUE TO DEEP AND QUICK FLOOD WATERS. THIS RIVER LEVEL
  ON THE TOLT CORRESPONDS TO A PHASE 3 FLOOD IN THE KING COUNTY FLOOD
  SYSTEM.

$$


Flood Warning

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1148 AM PST SAT DEC 11 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WASHINGTON...

  SOUTH FORK NOOKSACK RIVER AT SAXON BRIDGE AFFECTING WHATCOM COUNTY.
  NOOKSACK RIVER AT NORTH CEDARVILLE AFFECTING WHATCOM COUNTY.
  NOOKSACK RIVER AT FERNDALE AFFECTING WHATCOM COUNTY.
  SKAGIT RIVER NEAR CONCRETE AFFECTING SKAGIT COUNTY.
  SKAGIT RIVER NEAR MT. VERNON AFFECTING SKAGIT COUNTY.
  NORTH FORK STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR ARLINGTON AFFECTING SNOHOMISH
  COUNTY.
  SOUTH FORK STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR GRANITE FALLS AFFECTING
  SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
  STILLAGUAMISH RIVER AT ARLINGTON AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
  SKYKOMISH RIVER NEAR GOLD BAR AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
  SNOHOMISH RIVER NEAR MONROE AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
  SNOHOMISH RIVER AT SNOHOMISH AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
  TOLT RIVER NEAR CARNATION AFFECTING KING COUNTY.
  SNOQUALMIE RIVER NEAR THE FALLS AFFECTING KING COUNTY.
  SNOQUALMIE RIVER NEAR CARNATION AFFECTING KING COUNTY.

.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 2

HEAVY RAIN HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON.
THE HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTH AND CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES ARE
LIKELY TO RECEIVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
RAINFALL WILL DRIVE ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS...FROM THE NOOKSACK IN
WHATCOM COUNTY TO THE SNOQUALMIE IN KING COUNTY...ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

MOST RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING. SOME...INCLUDING THE
UPPER SKAGIT...THE LOWER SNOQUALMIE...AND THE SNOHOMISH...COULD
HAVE MAJOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC033-120447-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0034.101212T1223Z-101213T2146Z/
/SQUW1.2.ER.101212T1223Z.101212T1800Z.101213T1246Z.NO/
1148 AM PST SAT DEC 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
  THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER NEAR THE FALLS
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 10:30 AM SATURDAY THE FLOW WAS 3506 CFS.
* FLOOD FLOW IS 20000 CFS.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD FLOW AROUND 4 AM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 35000 CFS AROUND 10 AM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD FLOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 30000 CFS...THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD
  FLOODING OF PASTURE LANDS AND ROADS ALONG THE RIVER FROM THE TOWN
  OF SNOQUALMIE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH FALL CITY. ROADS THAT MAY BECOME
  FLOODED INCLUDE FALL CITY-CARNATION...TOLT HILL...AND NOVELTY FLATS
  ROADS. THIS RIVER LEVEL ON THE SNOQUALMIE CORRESPONDS ROUGHLY TO A
  PHASE 3 FLOOD IN THE KING COUNTY FLOOD SYSTEM.

$$


Flood Warning

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1148 AM PST SAT DEC 11 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WASHINGTON...

  SOUTH FORK NOOKSACK RIVER AT SAXON BRIDGE AFFECTING WHATCOM COUNTY.
  NOOKSACK RIVER AT NORTH CEDARVILLE AFFECTING WHATCOM COUNTY.
  NOOKSACK RIVER AT FERNDALE AFFECTING WHATCOM COUNTY.
  SKAGIT RIVER NEAR CONCRETE AFFECTING SKAGIT COUNTY.
  SKAGIT RIVER NEAR MT. VERNON AFFECTING SKAGIT COUNTY.
  NORTH FORK STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR ARLINGTON AFFECTING SNOHOMISH
  COUNTY.
  SOUTH FORK STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR GRANITE FALLS AFFECTING
  SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
  STILLAGUAMISH RIVER AT ARLINGTON AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
  SKYKOMISH RIVER NEAR GOLD BAR AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
  SNOHOMISH RIVER NEAR MONROE AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
  SNOHOMISH RIVER AT SNOHOMISH AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
  TOLT RIVER NEAR CARNATION AFFECTING KING COUNTY.
  SNOQUALMIE RIVER NEAR THE FALLS AFFECTING KING COUNTY.
  SNOQUALMIE RIVER NEAR CARNATION AFFECTING KING COUNTY.

.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 2

HEAVY RAIN HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON.
THE HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTH AND CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES ARE
LIKELY TO RECEIVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
RAINFALL WILL DRIVE ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS...FROM THE NOOKSACK IN
WHATCOM COUNTY TO THE SNOQUALMIE IN KING COUNTY...ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

MOST RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING. SOME...INCLUDING THE
UPPER SKAGIT...THE LOWER SNOQUALMIE...AND THE SNOHOMISH...COULD
HAVE MAJOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC033-120447-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0035.101212T1517Z-101214T1604Z/
/CRNW1.3.ER.101212T1517Z.101213T0600Z.101214T0704Z.NO/
1148 AM PST SAT DEC 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
  THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER NEAR CARNATION
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 10:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 48.4 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 54.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 7 AM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 58.2 FEET AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 58.0 FEET...THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER WILL CAUSE MAJOR
  FLOODING FROM FALL CITY DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CARNATION AND DUVALL.
  DEEP AND SWIFT FLOOD WATERS WILL INUNDATE MANY FARMS...RESIDENTIAL
  AREAS...AND ROADS.  FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALL ALONG THE RIVER
  INCLUDING HEADWATERS...TRIBUTARIES...AND OTHER STREAMS WITHIN AND
  NEAR THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER BASIN.

$$

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Broken crystal balls

Not all weather forecasting relies on sophisticated computer modeling. Sometimes it's just a matter of simple pattern-recognition. You see this particular set of variables together and the next day you have this particular weather; multiple repetitions of the pattern becomes a trend. A few subsequent successful predictions based on that trend, and the correlation becomes canon, more or less.

A shining example of this is a model which has been used to successfully predict major snowstorms in the Salish Sea basin. I first heard of it from my wife, who at the time was an undergrad at UW; she had come up with it on her own through simple observation over one season of especially frequent snowstorms. I then saw it published by NOAA Commander Ken Lilly in the excellent Marine Weather of Western Washington.

The model is this. If you have:

a) a very deep and cold High over central British Columbia

b) a very deep Low marching in just south of the Olympic Mountains and

c) the jet stream sitting right over the Columbia River

then you are setting up for a very substantial snowstorm.

Over the past 20 years I've watched this pattern play out many times. More importantly, I have not seen a major snowstorm develop here without these parameters.

On Sunday night, we didn't meet any of these parameters. We expected the arctic blast, we didn't expect the snow. This week's weather changed the model. A lot of people will be poring over a lot of data gathered this week and developing new models from it for better prediction in the future. Is this week's storm, as some media outlets have suggested, a symptom of global climate change? Possibly. More on that topic later today.   

Monday, November 22, 2010

Butterfly Effect vs. the Meteorologists

That. Was one. Big. Mother effing. Butterfly.



More on the snow storm that wasn't supposed to be, tomorrow.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Butterfly Effect Update, Updated

So, here in West Seattle it's starting to snow like it means it. Papa Lorenz always wins.

I failed to post it earlier, but here's the link to Lorenz's 1962 paper on Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow.